China’s record poultry production is clouding prospects for Brazilian chicken exports, even after Latin America’s top supplier regained bird-flu-free status.
Beijing and the European Union — which suspended imports after the detection of Brazil’s first bird flu episode in a commercial flock last May — haven’t lifted their bans, keeping two of Brazil’s largest buyers out of the market.
Still, Brazil’s chicken exports slipped just 1.7% through July, a mild setback compared with steep declines in other bird-flu-hit producers. But with China and the EU still closed, shipments could end the year down as much as 2%, said Ricardo Santin, president of industry group ABPA. “If they reopen, volumes may even grow.”
The EU may resume purchases after the summer, Santin said, but the outlook for China is less certain as the country has been increasing its local supplies. Domestic chicken output jumped 7.5% in the first half of this year to a record 12.7 million tons, according to China’s Agriculture Ministry data cited by consultancy Datagro in a report.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts Chinese production will overtake Brazil’s in 2025, at 15.5 million tons against 15.25 million in the world’s largest exporter.
China’s beef and pork output are also expanding, with pork reaching 30.2 million tons in the first half — back to pre-African swine fever levels. The protein surge has pushed down prices even without Brazilian and U.S. imports, prompting Beijing to roll out measures to manage oversupply, particularly in hogs.
Poultry is the biggest contributor, accounting for 60% of the increase in protein supply during the first half, Datagro said.
But the fragmented nature of the industry makes government intervention harder than in pork. “Record production and lower prices suggest the chicken glut may persist for some time,” the consultancy noted. As further evidence, China recently suspended imports from 17 Thai plants.
Still, Brazil’s role in supplying niche cuts gives exporters confidence. Nearly half of China’s poultry imports consist of feet and paws — a segment that local producers cannot easily substitute.
“Replacing Brazil, the U.S. and Russia with local production would destabilize China’s supply,” Santin said. Once the ban is lifted, volumes are expected to return to pre-bird-flu levels, according to him.
ABPA projects Brazilian chicken exports will climb as much as 5.8% in 2026, to 5.5 million tons, assuming China and the EU resume purchases. “That’s the level we could have reached this year if not for the bird-flu episode,” Santin said.
