Brazil’s food retail sector is beginning to feel the effects of rising adoption of weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, with early signs of weakening demand for carbohydrate staples including rice, wheat flour and pasta.
The trend may accelerate as patents for semaglutide — the active ingredient in both drugs — expire in key markets. In Brazil, the patent cliff is scheduled for March 20, 2026, with other major jurisdictions also opening the door to generics this year.
Wider access is expected to deepen portfolio adjustments across retailers and food manufacturers, tilting assortments toward protein-rich and high-fiber products.
Belmiro Gomes, chief executive of Brazilian cash-and-carry chain Assaí, described the shift last month at the Latin America Investment Conference hosted by UBS in São Paulo.
“First we saw a drop in alcohol, then in sweets,” Gomes said. “More recently, primary carbohydrates such as rice and flour have experienced deflation well beyond typical commodity price swings. This is not about bumper harvests. It is demand”.
A Supply Reset for Staples
If the shift persists, Gomes expects a supply-side adjustment, particularly in rice. Retail prices could move closer to production costs, forcing growers to recalibrate output and margins.
“Once shelf prices approach production cost, the chain will need to rebalance,” he said.
At the same time, protein consumption has been trending higher over the past five years. Executives at global meat companies have previously flagged the structural rise in protein demand — a pattern Gomes believes will intensify as next-generation obesity drugs reach the market later this year.
“New therapies are likely to place more emphasis on muscle mass,” he said. “We expect stronger consumption of eggs, chicken breast and beef, categories that have already posted visible gains.”
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Assaí, one of Latin America’s largest food retailers, says it is positioning ahead of the wellness curve. Gomes noted the company has successfully anticipated demand surges in other categories, from pharmacies to automotive tires — a segment where it has become Brazil’s largest retailer.
“We are the largest seller of protein and beef in Latin America,” he said. “Our strategy is to anticipate shifts and recalibrate constantly.”
Heterogeneous Shift
Executives caution that the transition is uneven. Mateus Alencar, commercial vice president at M. Dias Branco, described what he called a “protein hunt,” reflecting growing consumer interest in functional foods and cleaner labels.
“We see clear behavioral change, but not every category declines,” Alencar said. “In many cases, it is about reformulation and adding nutritional value rather than eliminating products.”
Regional consumption patterns also differ sharply. In Brazil’s Northeast, pasta remains a staple alongside rice and beans, while in the wealthier Southeast, standalone pasta dishes are more common. Income levels and local food culture will determine how far the drug’s effect penetrates.
Generics Entrance
Isabella Wanderley, former CEO of Novo Nordisk in Brazil, said semaglutide patent expirations could flood markets with generics across Brazil, China and Canada. But she argues that the larger disruption lies ahead.
Roughly 15 new obesity-treatment molecules are in advanced development, potentially ushering in more personalized therapies — targeting fat loss without muscle depletion or addressing food cravings more precisely.
“The next phase will be less about uniform weight loss and more about tailored metabolic outcomes,” Wanderley said.
She added that as obesity treatment becomes more continuous — akin to long-term blood-pressure medication — dietary adjustments may prove structural rather than cyclical.
Consumers are likely to remain on therapy longer, embedding permanent shifts in food consumption patterns. For retailers and food producers, that implies deeper and more sustained portfolio realignments.
