Brazil is seeking to exclude already-shipped beef from China’s new import quota, a move that could prevent hundreds of thousands of tons from immediately facing punitive tariffs and help ease pressure on exporters’ margins.
China imposed country-specific beef import quotas at the end of 2025, applying a 55% tariff on volumes that exceed assigned limits. Brazil was allocated 1.106 million metric tons for 2026, with the quota rising modestly to 1.128 million tons in 2027 and 1.151 million tons in 2028.
Those levels fall well below Brazil’s current trade flows. Shipments to China are expected to exceed 1.5 million tons, underscoring the gap between official allocations and market reality.
According to Luis Rua, Brazil’s secretary for Trade and International Relations at the Ministry of Agriculture, negotiations will center on technical and operational adjustments rather than sweeping policy changes. One of the main requests is the establishment of a cutoff date defining when the quota begins to apply.
Exporters estimate that roughly 350,000 tons of beef were shipped from Brazil in 2025 but will arrive at Chinese ports only this year. If China were to count volumes based on arrival dates, that cargo alone would consume about a third of Brazil’s 2026 quota.
“We will ask that shipments made before the quota was defined be excluded from the calculation,” Rua said, arguing that retroactive application would distort trade flows and undermine predictability for exporters.
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Brazil is also exploring ways to reallocate unused portions of quotas assigned to other exporters that are unlikely to fill them. The US, for example, faces tight domestic cattle supplies and has increasingly become a net beef importer, limiting its ability to fully utilize its allocation.
Rua described the government’s approach as “assertive and feasible,” noting that while the quota ceiling is unlikely to be reached before the second half of 2026 — due to tighter cattle supply in Brazil — a faster resolution would help reduce uncertainty.
“The goal is to reach clarity as soon as possible,” he said, adding that January is a critical window to define operational rules before trade volumes accelerate.
Beyond headline numbers, several implementation details remain unresolved, including how shipments will be tracked, how volumes will be counted and which systems will be used to monitor compliance. Missteps at this stage, Rua warned, could lead to distortions once the quota is in force.
Another open question for the market is how Brazil’s 1.106-million-ton quota will be divided among exporters. According to Rua, allocation decisions will be left to the private sector rather than imposed by the government.
That discussion is expected to be handled by the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporters, which represents major processors. “This is a business decision,” Rua said. “Companies will determine the best allocation based on their own criteria, with government involvement only as a last resort.”
